Customer review from the Amazon Vine™ Program (What's this?)
An interesting, provocative book that suffers by examining other investing systems more thoroughly than its own.

Several premises form the backbone of this book. The author presents some guiding principles/tenets; the investor's job is to understand them and perform specific actions that flow from them. I'll try to present these core beliefs here:

1. Markets downturns last so long, that simply buying and holding is NOT a good strategy for most people. Several convincing examples are provided, and the author cleverly (although a bit too blithely) puts the bite on the adage about how much one loses if one misses the 10 best days of the market by trying to time. The counterpart not usually asked: What if one is in the market on the ten WORST days. All of this is predicated on the belief that an informed timing strategy (buying when low, selling when high) will beat buying and holding through bad times and good.

1. Technical analysis, particularly various buy and sell signals revealed through DOW, S & P, and NASDAQ charts, is more important than fundamental analysis of companies (either alone or as components of an ETF or a mutual). Furthermore, conservative, reasoned technical analysis permits fairly successful timing. Fundamental analysis looks at things like financial strength, return on investment, different valuation and risk metrics (price/earnings; sales/price, etc., management, competition, etc.) Technical theorists believe these things are usually built into the price, and that following price movements is more effective and efficient (I simplify greatly here!)

2. The performance of a stock, mutual fund, or ETF is 70% related to overall (e.g., the S&P) market movement, 20% to sector (e.g., financials, growth stocks, agriculture, small-caps), and only 10% to the stock itself. Therefore, follow overall market patterns, then know which ETFs to buy.

3. ETFs are the best investment "vehicle" for getting into and out of markets. Exchange Traded Funds are like a hybrid of mutual funds (many stocks rolled into a single investment) and individual stocks. Like stocks, their price changes throughout the day and one can trade them daily; like mutual funds, the large number of holdings decreases risk, and there is a large variety from which to choose. ETF's are better than mutuals, though, because there are fewer restrictions on buying and selling, much lower fees, and are generally passively rather than actively managed (they follow an index, like a representative sample of technology stocks, for example), and active managers have a fairly poor track record!

Given these premises, the following system is proposed:

Use eight different technical indicators (e.g., the OPPOSITE of investor sentiment, when a trend line reverses direction, when an ETF price moves through its moving average, when the ratio of new high prices to new low prices reaches a certain percentage), score a point for each, and buy ETF's when the overall market indicators score +3 points or more; sell them when their sum reaches -3 points. Forget about transaction costs of buying and selling, or tax consequences, these are usually outweighed by not holding while your ETFs are plummeting, or failing to buy as they rise.

Summary: A Top_Down, Contrarian, Momentum System!
Look for signs that the overall market is reaching a high or a low based on the convergence of these indicators, (among these are signs of overly exuberant or fearful investing patterns), then either buy or sell (all at once, or in increments) the top ETFs (based chiefly on their strength relative to similar types of ETFs), preferably buidling a diverse portfolio (some based on financial sectors, some on regions, some of style [growth vs. value crossed by small, medium, and large size of the holdings in the ETF). This latter assumption is a type of momentum investing: ETFs that are performing well will continue in that direction, and the only work is monitoring them and selling when their relative strength fizzles out.

Strengths of the Book:
1. There's a lot of practical and cautionary advice that is both realistic and helpful for beginning to average experience investors. The usual caveats about diversity, etc., are supplemented with warnings about shorting the market, the danger of leveraged funds, and the sometimes helpful strategy of using limits to safeguard your principle.

2. There are free websites given that track all eight components that signal when to buy or sell. The fact that there MUST be some convergence (at least three points in either direction) is also a prudent strategy.

3. WIth the exceptions of a few typos, the book is clearly written and interesting. Even if you don't agree with the strategy, the beginning/intermediate investor will learn a lot, and can test the system for free.

Problems with the Book.

The biggest flaw, which I see has not gone unnoticed by other here, is that there is no back-testing of the system to see how it would have performed in the past. Instead, we are shown, time and time again, how well it would have predicted the fairly unusual and very volatile market heights and deep valleys from 2007 through 2009. Even though there were no ETFs in earlier decades (say, the 1980's), why wasn;r research done to see how well the indicators would have predicted overall turns in the market! WIthout this, we seem to have a selection of data chosen to fit a theory, and this is not a very scientific way to proceed. Back-testing is presented in other contexts, but not with the system presented here.

2. While the universe of ETF's is whittled down to just 66, there's only one strategy given for choosing among them...an ETF's strength relative to similar ETF's. Given the book's lack of interest in fundamentals, there is no advice given on comparing simple metrics such as Alpha, or Sharpe and Traynor ratios (roughtly, the amount of reward relative to some benchmark given the amount of risk).

3. The graphics are hard to read, and, in a few cases, don;t support what's in the text. We're shown a low--a buy signal-- but not the low that occurred three months earlier, and that would have lost us money (given that other indicators converged). Instead, there's an annoying inexactitude, a focus on signals happening at roughly the same time, and an apparent ignoring of signals that may not have worked. Without more examples, the reader is left with the work of determining whether these signals would have hit the magic sum of 3.

Conclusion: Use with Caution.

TO its credit, even the book warns readers to use this system cautiously, and gives some variations according to your risk tolerance. The bottom line for me, though, is that we can only see that the system seems to work for the (short) selected time period, and the burden is left to us to test whether it has any legs in a very uncertain market that seems to defy many of the rules.

A welcome introduction, however, to the benefits of ETFs, some great websites for tracking overall market conditions and individual ETF performance, and for, perhaps, questioning one's own assumptions about investing. Recommended as a learning tool--as an investment strategy, the jury's still out.

See all customer reviews... ]]> July 26, 2010-00-00T00:00:00+09:00 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0807136433/areviews0c-20/ref=nosim/ ()


   1 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
 Conversations about Identity July 26, 2010
By Grady Harp
#20 REVIEWER

This review is from: Heredities: Poems (Walt Whitman Award) (Paperback)
J. Michael Martinez was born and raised in Greeley, Colorado, and while he is not an immigrant any more than the rest of us are immigrants because our families came to this melting pot from all the countries of the world, Martinez concentrates his liquid silver poetry on exploring his Hispanic heritage in such a way that the immediacy of his home in the USA seems just won, giving focus to the myriad aspects of retaining cultural identity in a new lodging place better than most poets writing today.

Contained in the pages of this very beautifully produced volume of his poetry are three sections: 'Heredities I Etymology, Heredities II Corporeity, and Heredities III Archetype. To appreciate these three divisions of poems, each containing extended thought processes that reflect his concern with memory and myth, magic and reality, and the sustainability of it all, the entire sets must be read in context. Each set of thoughts is apparently simple expressions of conversations, but upon reading and re-reading these poems the depth of perception and understanding of blood line inheritance becomes more fascinating and difficult. But as an example, here is an excerpt:

The Lady of Guadalupe's Dream and Jade Ruin

And she said: Does darkness list our erasures and become beautiful?

And she said: Those I love, I translate into advent and wild foxgrape, the blind staggers of water.

And then she said: The dead will return, narrow gates unlatched.

To which she replied: His body is air written between my hands.

Which is when she carved an arrow upon linden, leaf & chaff.

Which is when the butterflies hatched from her footprint.

Which was how she cut her fingers with seaweed and bitter jewel.

Which was when our martyr became the hour of unsung seeds.

Reading J. Michael Martinez is much like taking a journey into history, discovering the meanings of symbols and words that suddenly appear to us as understandable. There is such beauty in his phrasing and his word cropping and his expressionistic impressions that he surely will become an important poet of our time. Significantly he closes his book with this short work:

You said, The infinite is the origin you foster.
I said, History gathers in the name we never are.

Welcome to a new poet of significance! Grady Harp, July 10

See all customer reviews... ]]> July 26, 2010-00-00T00:00:00+09:00 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B001ECBXCM/areviews0c-20/ref=nosim/ ()


   1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
 Secrets, Dreams and Love in an Asylum July 26, 2010
By Grady Harp
#20 REVIEWER

This review is from: The Sandman ( El Hombre de arena ) [ NON-USA FORMAT, PAL, Reg.2 Import - Spain ] (DVD)
THE SANDMAN (EL HOMBRE DE ARENA) was made in Spain in 2007, written and directed by José Manuel González: for some reason the DVD has not been released in USA format but the film can be seen courtesy of the foreign films' section on On Demand on television. It is such a well crafted and written film that surely that exposure will result in the release of a version available to wider audiences here on Amazon.com.

There is a preamble to this film: an old tramp (Juan Llaneras) is found to carry a photograph that matches a photograph of a woman's mother holding the girl as a child. She takes the photograph to her guardian (Mercedes Sampietro) who then relates the history of the girl's birth and history. This takes us back to Spain in the 1960s in a 'hospital' (aka asylum for mentally unsuitable patients), a prison like atmosphere controlled by Burgos (Alberto Jiménez), the head physician whose obsession with control and order has resulted in a 'method' of keeping the patients/inmates manageable. Burgos' assistant is a physician Carmen (Irene Visedo) who is compassionate and who is against the cruel treatment of the patients - especially the sexual freedom nurse/guard Luis (Héctor Noas) has with the women 'patients'. A young, handsome young man Mateo (Hugo Silva) is brought in as a patient because of an inappropriate fight, and when Mateo meets Burgos an immediate inimical relationship forms: Mateo has the courage to criticize Burgos' hobby - creating model ships - and Burgos' revenge is to put Mateo in solitary confinement 'to set him straight about the rules and regulations of the hospital.'
Mateo is unjustly confined and upon release from solitary he finds the living conditions deplorable: his roommates include an odd character called Frenchy (Samuel Le Bihan) who gradually becomes his friend. His only reliable friend is the delivery man Joao (Miguel de Lira) who bonds with Mateo as he brings food supplies of the hospital - and cigarettes to Mateo.

Among the many women patents is on Lola (María Valverde) who has a long history of physical and sexual abuse as a child and committed a crime of passion to free herself from the mother who did not protect her from the father's cruelty. She is beautiful but almost mute and resigned to spend the rest of her life in the hospital. She captures Mateo's eye and he becomes her protector, even after she is assaulted by the lusty Luis and becomes pregnant as a result. Burgos blames Mateo for the pregnancy and punishes him further but gradually Carmen softens the situation and becomes close to both Mateo and Lola. Mateo, through a number of heroic acts proves himself to the inmates and to Burgos and plans to escape with Lola with the assistance of Joao. At the last moment Mateo must leave alone and Lola remains behind, cared for by the gentle Carmen. The rest of the story is fairly easy to guess as the film ends with Carmen being the guardian who has raised Lola's daughter always insisting that the now grown woman was deeply loved by both her mother Lola and by Lola's true love, Mateo - who has become an old 'tramp' in the streets. These are not spoilers because the story is in the telling, not in a series of surprises that could not be shared from the beginning.

The depiction of life in the mental institution is harsh and there are many secondary secrets we learn about that make both the patients and the staff three-dimensional people. Hugo Silva gives notice as a most impressive screen presence and fine actor: his future in film seems very bright. The entire cast is excellent and the pacing of the story and the manner in which the details of the events at the hospital are shared is with minimal dark shadows. This is a very fine Spanish film that deserves a wide audience. Grady Harp, July 10

See all customer reviews... ]]> July 26, 2010-00-00T00:00:00+09:00 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0942949358/areviews0c-20/ref=nosim/ ()


   1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
 Kehinde Wiley's World Stage July 25, 2010
By Grady Harp
#20 REVIEWER

This review is from: The World Stage: Africa Lagos-Dakar Kehinde Wiley (Hardcover)
Kehinde Wiley is an African American artist whose childhood in the notoriously gang and crime ridden South Central Los Angeles served as the stimulus for his investigating the world through art, a journey that has taken him to studies at Yale University and on to his current home base in New York City. With the artistic progress of Kehinde Wiley comes a profound respect for the grand portraiture of the past, the portraits of famous, powerful and wealthy men painted by the likes of Gainsborough, Titian, Reynolds, Van Dyck, Rembrandt, Holbein, Eakins and others. Wiley's obsession, so obvious in his majestic paintings, is to bring that same degree of dignity to the neglected African American male, placing his own heritage on the degree of celebration that has been history's realm of the White Man. In this excellent book published by Studio Museum in Harlem many of his strongest portraits are well reproduced and enhanced by fine essays by Thelma Golden, Krista A Thompson, Robert Hobbs and Tavia Nyong'o.

Wiley's father returned to his native Africa before the birth of his son, and the need to find his identity resulted in his traveling to Africa at age twenty to finally meet his father, to define his roots. This transforming moment resulted in Wiley's beginning to concentrate on portraiture, not only as a means of understanding his father but also as a process of learning how to reproduce the intimacy that the face and body stance communicates. Once Kehinde Wiley gained recognition and honor for his portraits of the African America male, often responding to the famous portraits of history by substituting Black men in the poses of those portraits, his attention expanded to his current and ongoing project The World Stage in which he travels to Africa, China, and Brazil and other countries where he elevates the pictorial role of men of color to the same level of dignity once the constricting arena of history's White Man. The resultant portraits of black men are grand, richly colorful and decorated images of men in contemporary clothing in the swagger and stance of the proud man posing for an artist who appreciates their rising place in the globalization or unity of mankind.

Wiley's models' eyes engage the viewer, requesting/demanding respect, engendering a sensuous presence of proud masculinity against a background of wildly floral elements: the contrast is pungent. As he grows more confident as an artist, the direct quotations of past historical portraiture appear less often, evidence that the majesty of his chosen subjects is sufficient to relay the Aristotelian 'true reality'. ('The aim of Art is to present not the outward appearance of things, but their inner significance; for this, not the external manner and detail, constitutes true reality.' Aristotle) While Kehinde Wiley is only one of the numerous highly gifted and successful black artists painting today, he is particularly important not only for his enormous gifts as a polished craftsman as a portrait artist, but also for his commitment to address inequalities of the past. Metaphorically, he is beginning to put some chronic misperceptions to rest. Grady Harp

See all customer reviews... ]]> July 25, 2010-00-00T00:00:00+09:00 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B0000687FH/areviews0c-20/ref=nosim/ ()


   1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
 One of the Most Sensitive Stories of Love on Film July 25, 2010
By Grady Harp
#20 REVIEWER

This review is from: For a Lost Soldier (DVD)
FOR A LOST SOLDIER (Voor een verloren soldaat) is a 1992 Dutch film based on a novel by Rudi van Dantzig, adapted for the screen by Don Bloch, and directed by Roeland Kerbosch whose understanding of the concept of love is remarkably sensitive. Some viewers may mislabel this film as inappropriate celebration of 'abnormal life styles' and that would be a sad comment on the level of consciousness that hopefully we have overcome. Erase all old tapes and view this beautiful film as a pure exploration of the human being's ability to love and perhaps it will become the classic it deserves to be.

The film is a reverie: a choreographer Jeroen Boman (Jeroen Krabbé) is distracted from his work by words and ideas and scenes that make him recall his childhood, and what follows is an explanation of his origins. The memory goes back to Holland in the 1940s as WW II is growing ever more a threat of Germany's determination to control the world. Because of the threat of invasion and because of the paucity of food and essentials to living the families begin to send their children in trucks to the countryside where the children will be fed and protected by farmers far enough away from the cities to possibly escape annihilation by the German forces. Maarten Smit appears as the young Jeroen Boman, transported to a farm where he feels out of place and quickly makes friends with another 'outsider'. Together they discover a crashed airplane in a field and Jeroen begins to get in touch with his feelings. Shortly the Canadians land in the little village to provide protection for the people, and while the soldiers all are attracted to the acutely available and willing girls, one soldier Walt Cook (Andrew Kelley) sites Jeroen and treats him well: the two are indeed separated by age but Walt is very young and very kind and gives Joeran the attention he longs for. Very gradually and very subtly Walt and Jeroen find a mutual love and the two, isolated and lonely, begin a love affair - an affair while very strong in feeling is handled so delicately that it seems completely natural. Eventually the Canadian troops are to leave and Walt departs on his own, leaving Jeroen to the returning attention of his family as they come to gather him home.

As the flashbacks reveal it is this memory of first love that the adult Jeroen is trying to capture in his choreographic story. The film ends with memories of the past evaporating in the air, memories that remain indelible in the adult Jeroen's mind.
The entire cast is excellent, but it is the very straightforward demonstration of love between Andrew Kelley and Maarten Smit, under the wise guidance of director Roeland Kerbosch that makes this film so memorable. it belongs in the personal library of all those who respect courage and delicacy in the art of filmmaking. Grady Harp, July 10

See all customer reviews... ]]> July 25, 2010-00-00T00:00:00+09:00 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B003DC87XE/areviews0c-20/ref=nosim/ ()


   1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
 Review for the Blu-ray version--how our world nurtured and could destroy us July 25, 2010
By Wayne Klein
#19 REVIEWER

This review is from: How the Earth Changed History [Blu-ray] (Blu-ray)
The Earth occupies a unique position in the evolution of humanity serving as both womb and grave. "How the Earth Changed History" tells us more about how the unique planet that we live on influenced our development by focusing on five geologic and geographic aspects of our planet that served to strengthen and move our evolutionary progress along. Narrated by Iain Stewart the narrator of "Earth: The Biography" another excellent documentary by the BBC, the show focuses on "Water", "Earth" and "Wind" on the first disc and "Fire" reserving the last section on humanity's impact on its own "The Human Planet". Each section looks into how water for example and the abundance or lack of it influenced the sprawling civilizations that appeared throughout history and how the changing topography of our world also brought down those civilizations just as readily.

"Deep Earth" focuses on how civilizations were drawn to areas where there were fault lines because of the abundance of minerals that could be found. "Wind" pushed us further on the oceans to new destinations that we might otherwise have never discovered and helped create agricultural diversity as well as influencing the dark behavior of humanity as seen with the creation and expansion of slavery.

"Fire" was the first step into allowing us to master our world by forging new, more advanced weapons among other things. "The Human Planet" looks at everything from the chemical destruction of our environment to corporate agriculture and how it has impacted our world and, in turn, threatening us as the world reacts.

A very good, sharp looking Blu-ray shot in high definition video, "How The Earth Was Changed" looks remarkably clean, sharp and vivid with solid black levels throughout and strong, bold colors. Occasional digital artifacts do crop up from time to time but they are minimal.This isn't a perfect transfer but it looks extremely good.

The 5.1 DTS-HD audio mix sounds extremely good but the focus is primarily on the main front and center speakers for the most part.

We get an interview with Iain Stewart who narrates and host the show entitled "Filming in Extremes" and roughly running about 20 minutes. It's presented in SD widescreen.

"How The Earth Changed History" is a marvelous glimpse into how our world not only helped give birth to us but also how it nurtured us and, when we do bad things to it and how it responds in kind to the damage we do to the environment. We live here we should treat our home better because without it, we're history ourselves. 4 1/2 stars.


See all customer reviews... ]]> July 25, 2010-00-00T00:00:00+09:00 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B000GLBRPU/areviews0c-20/ref=nosim/ ()


   1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
 The Truth is...this a great book! July 24, 2010
By Kurt A. Johnson
#46 REVIEWER

This review is from: The Truth 25th Discworld Novel (Hardcover)
This is the twenty-fifth book in Terry Pratchett's series on the Discworld--a flat world, supported on the back of four massive elephants riding on the back of a planet-sized turtle, anything hilarious can happen here, and eventually does. When William de Worde stumbles upon a group of dwarves setting up their new invention (a printing-press with movable type), he suddenly finds his little newsletter transformed into a giant, mass-market newspaper. But, when the Patrician of Anhk-Morpork is accused of murder, and the city goes up in an uproar, Mr. de Worde suddenly finds himself at ground zero. Strange things are happening, and Mr. de Worde finds that he has a master whom he must serve--the truth!

As always, Terry Pratchett is the master of telling a gripping story, where at time two and more storylines are running simultaneously, all without causing the least bafflement to the reader. I loved the characters, including a vampire on the wagon, a very serious zombie, several homicidal maniacs, Samuel Vimes, a load of armed and dangerous dwarves, and a secret informant known as...Deep Bone. This is another great Pratchett book, one that I recommend wholeheartedly.

See all customer reviews... ]]> July 24, 2010-00-00T00:00:00+09:00 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B00004KDEP/areviews0c-20/ref=nosim/ ()


   1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
 Professor Moriarty is out there somewhere in Manhattan July 24, 2010
By bernie
#761 REVIEWER

This review is from: They Might Be Giants (DVD)
Moreover, we get to search for Moriarty together with the real duo of George C. Scott and Joanne Woodward.

It appears that Justin Playfair (George C. Scott) things he is Sherlock Holmes. An investigation by Dr. Mildred Watson (Joanne Woodward) may prove he is Holmes and she is really the Dr. Watson. On their mission to find their elusive archenemy, Professor Moriarty, they barely pass by one of his traps in a supermarket. Watch as Holmes makes a unique diversion. In the process, we may learn a little bit about ourselves.

I am rooting for them and you will be.

Do not thing the film is just carried by two actors. You may find some of our other favorites in this film.


American Dreamer

See all customer reviews... ]]> July 24, 2010-00-00T00:00:00+09:00 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0814415059/areviews0c-20/ref=nosim/ ()


   1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
 How to manage up, down, and all around with high-impact July 24, 2010
By Robert Morris
#26 REVIEWER

This review is from: Lead Your Boss: The Subtle Art of Managing Up (Hardcover)

Don't be misled by the title of this book. The information and counsel that John Baldoni provides will help almost anyone (at whatever level) in almost any organization (whatever its size and nature) to achieve several critically important objectives in relationships with associates, including direct reports as well as with those to whom you report. Specifically, how to

1. Continuously improve your performance
2. Engage others who can assist your efforts
3. Help them to improve their own performance
4. Improve communication, cooperation, and collaboration with others
5. Over time, make whatever adjustments required by new circumstances

For Baldoni, to lead is to take the initiative in relationships with others. Where to begin? Consider these action steps he recommends at the conclusion of the first chapter:

o Establish trust be following through on all commitments
o Make yourself available to help others
o Share credit with others
o Be proactive re solving problems
o Demonstrate common sense (e.g. be realistic and practical)

To these, I presume to add two other suggestions: Volunteer for difficult or unpleasant tasks but only if you can complete them satisfactorily, and, congratulate others on a job well-done.

Credibility is the coin of the realm in a workplace: Baldoni brilliantly explains how to establish and then sustain others' confidence in you, not only in your talents and skills but also in your character. It is imperative for associates, indeed for everyone with whom you interact (including customers) to know that they can count on you.

Throughout his lively narrative, Baldoni cites dozens of real-world examples to demonstrate his key points. He also makes effective use of reader-friendly devices such as summary checklists of key points at the end of each chapter and lists of questions needed to complete a self-audit (e.g. after a setback). He also offers some excellent advice on how to lead with presence. More specifically, how to earn trust, radiate confidence as well as optimism, exude calmness during a crisis, demonstrate emotional intelligence (e.g. passion and compassion), show/express appreciation of others, and lead by example.

Again, it is important to keep in mind that insofar as Baldoni is concerned, a leader can be anyone, not necessarily a "boss"; also, an aspiring leader must be authentic in the sense that she or he (in Bill George's words) follows True North, "the internal compass that guides you as a human being at your deepest level. It is your orienting point - your fixed point in a spinning world - that helps you stay on track as a leader. Your True North is based on what is most important to you, your most cherished values, your passions and motivations, the sources of satisfaction in your life. Just as a compass points toward a magnetic field, your True North pulls you toward the purpose of your leadership."

I highly recommend this book to those in urgent need of practical advice on how to manage themselves, "lead" themselves, more effectively so that they can then be of service to others within and beyond their workplace, wherever they may be located in an organizational hierarchy. Credit John Baldoni with a brilliant achievement.

See all customer reviews... ]]> July 24, 2010-00-00T00:00:00+09:00